Taipei - Taiwan-China ties are expected to remain strained in the next two years following the independence-leaning ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP's) better-than-expected performance in mayoral elections on the island over the weekend.
In Saturday's poll, the pro-unification opposition Nationalist Party or Kuomintang (KMT) maintained control of the capital Taipei with a much-reduced majority while President Chen Shui Bian's DPP clung onto the second-largest city of Kaohsiung.
Although the results issued Sunday seem to be even-handed for both parties, the KMT suffered a major setback because opinion polls had predicted the DPP would lose - marginally - due to its poor performance and corruption and embezzlement scandals surrounding President Chen's family and his aides.
While KMT candidate Hau Lung-bin defeated his DPP rival Frank Shieh in Taipei, Hau got only 54 per cent of votes, or 10 per cent less than the KMT won in 2002.
Shieh, a former DPP chairman and Kaohsiung mayor, received 41 per cent of the votes, up 4 per cent from the DPP's performance in 2002.
In Kaohsiung, a traditional DPP stronghold, the DPP's Chen Chu defeated the KMT's Huang Chun-ying by a mere 1,114 ballots.
Huang has accused Chen of rigging the vote, and the Kaohsiung District Court has ordered a recount of ballots.
As the mayoral elections are seen as a prelude to the 2008 presidential election, many Taiwanese are confused by the outcome and concerned about the presidential election and future Taipei-Beijing ties.
Yang Tai-shun, a professor of political science at the Chinese Culture University, said the election result shows that the DPP still maintains a strong power base in southern Taiwan where Kaohsiung is located.
If the KMT wants to win the 2008 presidential election, it must unite its factions and better mobilize the masses, Yang said.
'The election result shows that DPP supporters in south Taiwan do not care if President Chen is corrupt or not. They only care about Taiwan's independence,' he told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.
'Encouraged by the election win, Chen will be bolder in pushing his pro-independence moves. It will be less likely that he will promote cross-Strait ties, like lifting the ban on Chinese tourists visiting Taiwan,' he said.
KMT's poor showing in the election has weakened KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou's chance of winning the 2008 presidential election, analysts said.
Although Ma has not announced he will run for president, until now the charismatic incumbent Taipei mayor has been tipped by public opinion polls as the likely winner.
The KMT ruled Taiwan from the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949 until 2000, when it lost the presidency to the opposition DPP. The KMT lost again in 2004, giving Chen a second four-year term as president.
In the past two years, the KMT has repositioned itself to prepare for the 2008 poll, and has been winning growing public support as the DPP's separatist policy and ban on direct contact with China have strained cross-Strait ties and hurt Taiwan's economy.
In the past six months, the KMT and opponents of Chen have launched a campaign to topple him, accusing Chen's family and aides of corruption and embezzlement. Chen's son-in-law Chao Chien-min and Chen's wife Wu Shu-chen have been indicted.
Prosecutors said there was also evidence to charge Chen, but they would not press charges due to his presidential immunity.
The mayoral election took place against this background, with the public widely expecting the KMT to win a landslide victory in both Taipei and Kaohsiung.
But they were disappointed.
Even Taiwan watchers in China were caught off-guard by the outcome of the mayoral elections.
'With the DPP ensnared in a string of scandals, this should be the best opportunity for the KMT to win the election,' the chinesenewsnet.com website quoted Wang Jianmin, a researcher at the Taiwan Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as saying.
'But the result shows that DPP supporters still back the DPP, and the KMT is in a deep crisis. It should be a grave warning to the KMT,' Wang said.
© 2006 dpa - Deutsche Presse-Agentur 
Your Talkback on this Story