Jun 23, 2008, 12:35 GMT
Johannesburg/Harare - With President Robert Mugabe assured of 'victory' in the now one-man presidential runoff election on Friday, Zimbabwe will have to face an economic disaster worse than it has ever experienced, economists warned Monday.
Following the announcement on Sunday by Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, that he was withdrawing 'from this violent, illegitimate sham of an electoral process,' Mugabe's ZANU(PF) declared it would nevertheless proceed with the election and 'romp home to victory.'
Violence in the capital reached a new pitch on Sunday as mobs of Mugabe's ZANU(PF) militias, armed with sticks, stopped what was to have been Tsvangirai's only major rally in the 11-week election campaign by occupying the site of his rally, and later roamed townships and the city centre, harassing and assaulting passers-by.
Hospital sources said 86 people had been treated for injuries. 'God knows how many others there were who didn't seek attention, for one reason or another,' said one doctor who asked not to be named.
MDC sources said party lawyers were drafting a statement of withdrawal to the state-run Zimbabwe Electoral Commission. Earlier, ZEC chairman George Chiweshe said that without a formal statement from Tsvangirai, the election would have to proceed.
Sunday's development came as a combination of hyperinflation, the accelerating crash of the currency and food shortages reached new proportions.
On Monday, only limited supplies of bread were briefly available in bakeries and supermarkets, while maize meal, the national staple, had all but disappeared from not just supermarkets, but the black market as well.
The main headline from state propaganda the daily Herald trumpeted: 'Government rolls out basic commodities under an official programme called the 'Basic Commodities Restocking Programme'' at a just launched system of government stores, purportedly selling at prices a tenth of what goods retail for on the market.
However, business people pointed out that the government has so far opened only one of what it calls 'the People's Shops,' while supermarkets in the capital were marked by row upon row of empty shelves.
The exchange rate offered by banks was reported to have fallen from 1 US dollar to 7.5 billion Zimbabwe dollars on Friday down to 1 US dollar to 12 billion Zimbabwe dollars on Monday.
'It's a crisis in every possible direction,' said economist John Robertson. 'Financially they (the government) are stymied and they cannot move in any direction. They can't do anything about it.'
Those Zimbabweans with salaries are finding it increasingly difficult to lay their hands on their money, and to spend it. Increasingly, shops are refusing to accept cheques, because in the five days it takes for a cheque to be cleared, its value will have fallen to a fraction of what it was at the time of the purchase.
Also, automated teller machines, widely available in Zimbabwe's urban areas, are allowed to dispense only Zimbabwe dollars 25 billion at one time. 'That will buy two litres of fuel today,' said Robertson. 'It will take anyone 25 days to draw enough cash for 50 litres to fill a tank.'
Significantly, the section worst hit by the difficulties in getting access to money is the civil service, including about 100,000 members of the army, the police, the secret police and prison services, all of whom have been critical in maintaining Mugabe's violent rule.
'Increasingly, people don't want the money the government is printing,' said Robertson. 'It doesn't matter how much they get, they cannot spend it because there is almost nothing to buy. They are getting more and more disenchanted.'
The unavailability of food, however, is likely to be 'the cutting edge of this crisis,' he said. 'We have had the worst crops in 60 years. You cannot find bread anywhere.'
The government has repeatedly stated it has paid for 500,000 tonnes of maize to be imported through South Africa, but there is no sign of any of it having arrived, he said.
'They say these things, but if they were (importing grain), we would have seen it. They cannot pay for it. The railways are not working, so they can't transport it and there aren't the trucks to carry it. The mess deepens every day.'
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