Movies Features

Oscar Ruminations - Just Days to Go

By Anne Brodie Feb 24, 2011, 23:51 GMT

The film chronicles the young King George VI, the father of Queen Elizabeth II, as he cautiously assumes the throne after his brother, Edward, renounces the position. ...more

The space between contenders for an Oscar sweep, The King’s Speech and The Social Network, appears to be widening with each passing day. 

The Social Network was the one to beat for months, thanks to its timely story and strong direction by David Fincher.

But in recent weeks The King’s Speech, director Tom Hooper and star Colin Firth have pulled ahead smartly, like the overlooked nag in Secretariat and what was once a horserace now seems a fait accompli for the Brits.

Colin Firth appears to have a death grip on the Best Actor statue.  He’s made the media rounds of late, sending his likeability factor way up with his charmingly modest, engaging and whimsical attitude. 

Jeff Bridges and Javier Bardem rocked their roles in True Grit and Biutiful but haven’t Firths’ frisson.  And each has his own Oscar. 

Jesse Eisenberg made interesting choices in The Social Network, but he hasn’t yet earned his Oscar, if history tells us anything.  As for James Franco, who will host the telecast, he did a great job in 127 Hours, but given his extraordinary professional endeavours, does he really care?  Franco is pretty clear eyed about things, especially Firth’s position.

The Best Actress category is a head scratcher. Will Annette Bening pull out ahead and leave Natalie Portman in the dust?  Could newcomer Jennifer Lawrence beat the odds for her insanely great performance in Winter’s Bone? 

Nicole Kidman and Michelle Williams were truly monumental in Rabbit Hole and Blue Valentine, but seem to have fallen off the publicity map.  Except for Black Swan, these films have played to tiny audiences.

Contenders in other categories haven’t corned the market yet but they’ve made waves.  Melissa Leo was the original favourite for Best Supporting Actress for The Fighter, but lost her lead when she released home-grown glamour trade ads. 

Leo’s  gutsy performance is attention grabbing on its own, without help from faux fur and diamonds, but like the ads, it may be just a little too much for the Academy’s conservative taste.

Fellow Best Supporting Actress nominee Jacki Weaver’s hearts topping performance in Animal Kingdom will lose votes because the film has been invisible.  And zero marketing, unlike True Grit (Hailee Steinfeld) The Kids are Alright (Julianne Moore), The Fighter (Amy Adams) and The King’s Speech (Helena Bonham Carter). 

The front runner in the Best Supporting Actor category is pretty clear.  Some loved Christian Bale’s performance in The Fighter but some saw it as just way too out there; it looked like Bale and Leo were fighting it out onscreen for the crazy crown. 

Geoffrey Rush did his usual marvellous work in The King’s Speech but he has an Oscar and he’s Australian, so his chances are diminished.   

John Hawkes was superb in Winter’s Bone but he’s a virtual unknown.  Mark Buffalo has a shot for The Kids are Alright, but it was so subtle that Bale dances all over him. 

Jeremy Renner, top notch in the Town, has a long career and many opportunities ahead of him.

The Best Director category is problematic, as there are five named but only ten Best Picture nominees. Which means five worthy directors won’t benefit from their acclaimed work. 

Darren Aronofsky is making headway for Black Swan with the youth vote, while Tom Hooper has recently surged forward for The King’s Speech.  David Fincher’s The Social Network is a game changer but he is somewhat less than Hollywood friendly and unfortunately, these things tend to matter at Oscar time.  

The Coens have remained under the radar despite their accomplishments in True Grit, maybe taking a grace break form their No Country for Old Men triumph.  David O. Russell, with all his Hollywood run-ins, doesn’t seem to come up in conversation for The Fighter.

The Best Picture category has swollen to ten but only two really count, The King’s Speech and The Social Network.  And The Social Network will likely bow to King Colin.  The Black Swan, Inception, The Kids are Alright, 127 Hours and Toy Story 3 are  certainly superlative films deserving of awards, but they are  dwarfed by the surprisingly popular historic stutterer and his therapist. 

True Grit, Winter’s Bone and Toy Story 3, films I admire deeply, must content themselves with nominations, and while The Fighter’s getting some last minute attention, The King’s Speech, the feel good film of 2010, is unsinkable.  Perhaps if The Social Network had been less feel bad, it could have dethroned the King.

Who is going to take home the Oscar? Let M&C know your picks for Hollywood's biggest night!