Movies Features

The Oscar Race 2010 – The Final Lap

By Anne Brodie Mar 4, 2010, 20:33 GMT

Oscar statuette sits at R.S. Owens in Chicago, Illinois, USA, 18 February 2010. EPA/KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI

The Hurt Locker, Avatar, and Inglourious Basterds are providing an Olympic style three way dash to the Best Picture finish line this year.  The picture changes each day as we head into the last stretch with the balance largely in favour of Hurt Locker, but prior wins for all three mean the field is still open.  Two weeks ago, Avatar was the one to beat, but has fallen from the hotly anticipated column, nudged in part by James Cameron’s own exhortations to voters to extend the prize to his ex-wife Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker.

What dictates against a win by Avatar, a massive commercial success, is that it is science fiction and the genre has never scored a Best Picture.  The Hurt Locker is sweeping the majority of awards contests and seems to be a no-brainer, with nothing holding it back but a recent and surprising final stretch rally by Inglourious Basterds.

This trilogy tally couldn’t be clearer with nine overall nominations for both Avatar and The Hurt Locker and eight for Inglourious Basterds.  Whether there are ten or five films in contention, this year the top three are really the only ones that matter.  It rarely happens but if there is any justice, the Best Director award must go to the talent behind the Best Film.  The Best Picture category should provide suspense that is mostly lacking in this years’ predictable Oscar race. 

The Best Actress category is the only other nail biter.  Meryl Streep (Julie and Julia) versus Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), the admired veteran versus America’s Sweetheart (sorry Julia), have solid competition in Helen Mirren (The Last Station).  The Academy often awards elegant, cool Brits in this category, but Southern sass may win the day for Bullock.  Streep has sixteen nominations and one solitary Best Actress win, way back in 1983, and voters tend to take her for granted.

Gabourey Sidibe and Carey Mulligan give terrific performances in Precious and An Education but they have their careers ahead of them, and frankly don’t have much of a chance against the three mighty frontrunners.  Their nominations have already given them their prize - entrée into Hollywood.

Mo’Nique appears to have the Best Supporting Actress category sewn up, as she continues to sweep awards.  She has also bowed to Hollywood, finally participating in the Precious publicity campaign after having dissed the Oscars and awards in general.  But everyone loves an actress who learns her lesson.  She’s on top now thanks to her gothic portrayal of a welfare mother and her new habit of spreading sugar all over filmdom.  Penélope Cruz, Vera Farmiga, Maggie Gyllenhaal, and Anna Kendrick, sorry girls.  Not this year. 

Jeff Bridges has a steel grip vice lock on the Best Actor prize because he’s beloved and did a spectacular job with his Crazy Heart alcoholic country music singer.  But Bridges also comes from Hollywood and is sweeping prior awards.  George Clooney, Colin Firth, Morgan Freeman, and Jeremy Renner are long shots who did excellent work but serve to fill out the required five names on the ballot.

Christoph Waltz, that zany, bloodthirsty Nazi in Inglourious Basterds, seems headed for the Best Supporting Actor prize, because he, like Mo’Nique, put in a colourful performance and dominated prior contests.  Matt Damon, Christopher Plummer, and Stanley Tucci have been relegated to the relative shadows of “it’s enough to be nominated.”  If not for Waltz, Woody Harrelson’s astounding performance in The Messenger may have netted him the win.

Damon has an unfortunate Oscar history.  One has the feeling he has come really close to a nomination on several occasions (The Bourne films, The Talented Mr. Ripley, etc.), but just missed by a moment, again this year for The Informant.

NBC has nearly hobbled this year’s Oscar campaigns – serving up the late night debacle that blew Conan out of the water and delayed Jay Leno’s return until days before the Oscar ceremonies and the Olympics that have viewers tuning in at a furious rate in prime stumping time.