Movies Features

Who will win? Collective punditry predicts The Hurt Locker

Mar 1, 2010, 9:34 GMT

Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences President Tom Sherak (R) and Oscar-winning actor Anne Hathaway (L) announce the nominations for \'Best Original Screenplay\' at the 82st Academy Awards nominations. EPA/ANDREW GOMBERT

Los Angeles - In one corner you have the giant blockbuster Avatar, helmed by Oscar-record holder James Cameron. This is the guy who has become a Hollywood real-life superhero for single-handedly revitalizing a moribund industry and earning some 2.5 billion dollars worldwide.

In the opposite corner is the classic underdog The Hurt Locker, directed by Cameron's ex-wife Katherine Bigelow. This scrappy movie has amassed just 18 million dollars at the box office with its warts-and-all impact of an unpopular war on a group of gnarly American anti-heroes.

Both movies have nine Oscar nominations and are the leading contenders for the Oscar best picture prize. That's the ultimate accolade that Hollywood can bestow - and according to the bookies and the pundits The Hurt Locker is going to win it Sunday night.

'The Hurt Locker is definitely the front-runner,' said Tom O'Neil, an awards season pundit for The Los Angeles Times's theenvelope.com. 'There doesn't seem to be any confusion. There is a clear consensus within the industry, which is strange because 'The Hurt Locker' is a movie without stars and it's made no money.'

'In recessionary times, voters seem to be turning their back on the most successful film ever made in favor of a money loser.'

But no less a pundit that Cameron himself warns that focusing exclusively on this David and Goliath battle could miss the eventual winner.

'For people who think it's gonna be a two-picture race between us and 'Hurt Locker,' I would say there are others in it too,' he said after the nominations were announced, mentioning Up in the Air as the most likely spoiler.

Adding an extra twist of uncertainty is the new voting format. Ten pictures are up for the prize, instead of the usual five. The winner will be chosen by a preferential voting system rather than simply the film with most votes, allowing a popular compromise movie like Up in the Air to come out on top.

In the other major categories, which still adhere to the traditional voting formula, there is even less uncertainty, according to the Gurus of Gold, a website that tabulates the predictions of major pundits.

Nonetheless, Bigelow still seems a shoo-in for best director, given her victory at the Directors Guild Awards, which have yielded the Oscar winner in 58 of the last 62 years.

Also regarded as a certain winner is Jeff Bridges, a longtime Hollywood icon who has dominated the actor awards this season as a washed-up country music star in Crazy Heart.

The pundits and bookies alike favour Sandra Bullock to win the best actress prize for her role in the Blind Side, though they agree she faces tough competition from the eternally popular Meryl Streep who has a record 16 Oscar nominations, but only two victories so far.

Favoured for best supporting actor is Christopher Waltz, for his portrayal of a manic Nazi in Inglourious Basterds, while Mo'Nique is tipped to win for supporting actress in Precious.

Taken as a whole however, the Oscars will be a pretty close race this year according to the Gurus of Gold, which notes that in two-thirds of the races the runner up comes within ten points of the winner.

For what it's worth, this collective wisdom of punditry also predicts wins for Up in the Air (best adapted screenplay), Germany's The White Ribbon (best foreign film), Up (for animation and musical score,) Avatar ((Visual effects, cinematography, art direction, sound editing), and Crazy Heart (music- song).