Pakistan's former leader Pervez Musharraf resigned yesterday in an emotional address to the nation ahead of impeachment proceedings brought by the country's newly-resurgent Parliament. Musharraf dominated Pakistani politics for almost a decade and strode the world stage as one of the U.S.'s chief regional allies in the war against terrorism. However the euphoria expressed at the ousting of the one time strongman was tempered with the knowledge that Islamabad is likely to face a protracted power struggle to fill the vacuum.

Musharraf's ascendancy was the catalyst that brought together the two main parties; the Pakistan Peoples Party and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), though the two have traditionally been rivals throughout the country's history. With the chief reason for the parties' awkward and fragile coalition now gone, the country could face an uncertain, if not violent, political future.

The record of the two parties coalition since obtaining office in February is mixed and there have been squabbles over key issues such as immunity for Musharraf and the vexing question of whether to reinstate the judges ousted by Musharraf, an act which proved to be the tipping point for Musharraf in the eyes of the Pakistani public.

Now despite an apparent agreement between coalition leaders Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif that all judges would be reinstated within 72 hours, this looks again to be on shaky ground as Zardari looked today to be backing away from the deal. Chief among points of contention seems to be whether or not the independent-minded judiciary will look to open an investigation into past corruption allegations against the leaders of the coalition.

These are not the only points of difference between Zardari and and Sharif though. Musharraf leaves two damning legacies: a militant Islamist movement gaining in popularity and a failing economy. Since the coalition's election in February, significant difference in ideology in how to deal with these problems have emerged.

According to the Sydney Morning Herald's Matt Wade, reporting from Lahore, little progress has been made by the new Government on either of these fronts.

There are significant ideological differences between the two parties on how to tackle Pakistan's two biggest challenges: combating militancy and managing the economy.

One of the reasons for the collapse of Musharraf's reputation was a failing economy, battered by capital flight, rapidly falling foreign-exchange reserves and soaring inflation, now at 21 per cent. People struggle to pay for flour and fuel. The entire country suffers from prolonged power failures, which, according to the International Monetary Fund, can be attributed largely to the failure of the Musharraf government to build power plants.

The new Government has made no major policy response either to this deepening economic crisis or the country's security problems. [source]

As if to underline the simmering problems facing the administration, a bomb ripped through a hospital in the north-western Pakistani town of Peshawar killing twenty-three people just hours after Musharraf's resignation. The region has seen prolonged sectarian violence. Agence France-Presse reports a provincial police spokesman Riaz Ahmad as saying, "It is not clear if the blast was a suicide attack."

Thus far the leadership of Pakistan's military has behaved impeccably, at least to Western eyes, promising to stay out of politics and uphold the democratic decision of the people in February. However history has shown that Pakistan's military has not been shy in coming forward to "save" Pakistan in times of political upheaval. The last such coup was in October 1999 when Musharraf led a bloodless takeover from the elected corruption-riddled government of Nawaz Sharif. Musharraf became the fourth Army chief of Pakistan to have assumed executive control.

As the road ahead for the governing coalition appears fraught with ideological potholes, the White House is concerned that Islamabad's war on Al-Qaeda and the recently resurgent Taliban could be compromised.

With anti-Americanism on the rise in the country, both Sharif and Zardari may look to loosen ties with the United States, in order to maintain popularity with the Pakistani people. If the struggle between the parties does indeed turn violent, and more pointedly, if the Islamist parties in Pakistan were to take  advantage of the split to take control of the country, will the U.S. administration support the Pakistani military in yet another coup? The fact that Pakistan has been a confirmed nuclear power since 1998, the year before Musharraf's coup, adds a dangerously potent factor into the Pakistani political cauldron.

The White House has thanked Musharraf for his support during the Bush years and his alliance in the war on terror though many inside the administration have quietly claimed over the years that he was playing both sides against each other, allegedly harbouring Al-Qaeda militants on Pakistani territory or not doing enough to pursue them. Musharraf's tactics were on the one hand to persuade the Bush administration that he was a loyal ally against such Islamist organisations such as Al-Qaeda while placating his own internal fundamentalist Islamists who accused him of being too pro-West. Musharraf had already escaped a number of assassination attempts at the hands of Islamist supporters.

His final place of retirement is unclear with some reports suggesting he will be exiled to either Saudi Arabia or the USA. With his penchant for whiskey and the company of woman, one would think he would be suited to a retirement home in the United States.

Granny flat at the Crawford Ranch perhaps?

Image top: Pakistan flag. Image right: Former President Pervez Musharraf. Credit: Agencia Brasil.

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